Center for International Earth Science Information Network. 7780, 1020. Except for V. cholerae and its close relatives, all Vibrio species are halophilic (salt-requiring). The sum of the coastline length within climate cells where presence was calculated for each SSP scenario and future time period. Earth System Grid Federation. J. Environ. For baseline and all future time periods (20212040, 20412060, 20612080 and 20812100) the mean monthly temperature for each calendarmonth during the period of interest was calculated. & Moisen, G. G. PresenceAbsence: An R Package for Presence Absence Analysis. Aged populations are more susceptible to V. vulnificus infections and when the projected population aged over 60 is calculated large increases in this age group are observed across all models from 17% at baseline to 31% by 20412060, and over 40% by 20812100. infections in patients with high exposure risks and the need for early supportive and appropriate antibiotic therapies. These models were used to predict the V. vulnificus infection distribution into the future, using air temperature projections from seven GCMs. Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Figure2 presents the latitudinal distribution of V. vulnificus cases by year and shows that the 5th percentile of latitude (henceforth southern extent) of cases has remained constant at the Mexican border and not shifted northwards (linear trend p=0.237), whereas the mean case latitude has moved northward at 0.13 (~15km) p.a. And without intervention to halt global warming, such cases are likely to continue increasing and spreading, according to a paper published Thursday in the journal Scientific Reports. Article The patient had no history of contact with the sea or fresh water or aquatic organisms or products. Symptoms vary depending on which species is causing your illness. These data were plotted and trends assessed. 144, 195207. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509 (2017). It is transmitted via the consumption of contaminated fish and shellfish and through the skin when exposed to contaminated seawater. Model Dev. Cases were excluded (128) where the home/ travel location was coarser than city/county. sepsis, and potentially death. Most vibriosis infections are caused by two specific types of Vibrio bacteria, Vibrio vulnificus or Vibrio parahaemolyticus. When the bacteria get into an open wound, they can kill off otherwise healthy tissue via a phenomenon known as necrotizing fasciitis. Iain R. Lake. Upon discharge to the medical ward, he was not on any oxygen or vasopressor support. These rates were multiplied by the age profile in the risk zone (200km buffer surrounding coastline where V. vulnificus infections are present) to estimate likely baseline and future cases. 217, 4858. The Gram-negative bacterium V. vulnificus is a common inhabitant of estuarine environments.V. V. vulnificus is a potentially fatal pathogen with spread occurring faeco-orally and via the skin. Model predictive power was measured using the mean AUC calculated for each of the 100 model replicates on the corresponding testing subsets using R package pROC43. Under medium to high future greenhouse gas emissions, V. vulnificus infections will be present in every state along the East Coast between 2081 and 2100, they predict. Repeat chest X ray on day 4 showing diffuse consolidation of the left lung, High resolution computed tomography chest showing dense consolidation of left lung. Of particular concern is V. vulnificus infection which can occur from exposure to seawater through small skin lesions10 and can quickly turn necrotic, requiring urgent surgical tissue removal or limb amputation in around 10% of cases11. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Soc. Notably, this patient was immunocompetent with no history of alcohol abuse or any chronic disease. Sci. Med. Correspondence to Results for other SSPs and time periods are found in Supplementary Information (Tables S2, S3 and Figs. Part II Top. Here we show that in Eastern USA the total reported V. vulnificus cases have increased eightfold between 1988 and 2018, accompanied by a profound geographical expansion. Vibrio spp. Dengue fever in Laos: 6,488 cases reported to date, 1st death of the year Peru reports nearly 15,000 new dengue cases, Dr. Csar Henry Vsquez Snchez sworn in as new Minister of Health State of the Global Climate 2020. Microb. Sarah Kuta COVIS data trained and validated the models which were generated using 100 different samples of historical data and had strong predictive power. He was previously fit and well with no prior medical illness of note. The Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance database (COVIS) may be obtained through enquiry to the US Center for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia. Nat. Health 5, e426e435. For the future time period the output from all 7 GCMs were averaged to generate a multi-model mean prediction of the distribution. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.04.001 (2012). However, over the last 30 years, these infections have been expanding farther and farther north, reaching latitudes as high as Philadelphia while still occurring in southern states like Texas. Our work uses an ENM to evaluate V. vulnificus infection spread. People with certain illnesses including people with chronic . Int. The air temperature data36 which has been bias corrected using WorldClim 2.137 to a spatial resolution of 2.5 arcminutes (~4.6km), represents monthly means of the daily maximum air temperatures. Atypical manifestations ofV. vulnificusinfection includes pneumonia, meningoencephalitis, peritonitis, pyogenic spondylitis, endometritis, septic arthritis, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, endophthalmitis and keratitis [1, 3]. Throughout the 14 years covered by our analysis, the total number of monthly cases was highest in August and September (128 cases per month), followed by . 2006;166(19):2117. He was a non-smoker, teetotaler and worked at the dockyard as a welder. 1), as results indicated no change in the southern extent and V. vulnificus has been isolated in shellfish throughout the Gulf of Mexico. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate. PubMedGoogle Scholar. He was discharged from the hospital two days later and regained full strength within two weeks, subsequently returning to his workplace. Report No. At the ETU, he was commenced on non-invasive ventilation (bilevel positive pressure ventilation IPAP-12cmH2O, EPAP-6 cmH2O, FiO2-40%) to support his breathing. Conversely, under SSP370 the coastline where V. vulnificus infections are present increases by another 1000km into southern Maine, to encompass every state along the Eastern USA coastline. This is plausible due to the rare nature of a V. vulnificus illness intersecting an area of lower population (i.e., North and South Carolina, Fig. Symptoms of vibriosis Several species of Vibrio can cause illness in humans including V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus ,and V. alginolyticus. In one grisly case, a 71-year-old South Korean man had to get his left forearm amputated after . Kelly MT, Avery DM. 25, 7684. Read . Future data were downloaded for the years 20182100 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. Google Scholar. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13256-023-03943-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13256-023-03943-9. Vibrio vulnificus is one of several forms of the Vibrio bacteria. Population data may be obtained from the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4). The admission laboratory investigations revealed a white blood cell count of 3.79103/uL (4.0010.00103/uL), a platelet count of 195103/uL (150450103/uL), Haemoglobin of 13.7g/dL (1116g/dL) and a serum creatinine of 1.8mg/dL (0.810.44mg/dL). The state has seen 10 cases this year of Vibrio vulnificus infections, two of which resulted in death, as of June 2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tim.2016.09.008 (2017). Therefore, within our current and future V. vulnificus disease distribution there will be coastal areas where conditions are unsuitable for V. vulnificus bacteria. However, far future predictions indicate a~2100km difference in coastline where infections are present between SSP126 and SSP585. PubMed S2S9). (Cambridge University Press, 2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Equivalent V. vulnificus data from Canada were unavailable, and an absence of case reports in the literature strongly suggests negligeable incidence. The best model is based upon air temperature, a surrogate for both sea surface temperature (the two are strongly correlated27,28) and coastal recreation29. 2), is projected to decrease by 9.3 million over the 21st century under the SSP3 pathways (Table S4). If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. CAS The infection can proceed incredibly fast: I worked with one woman whose husband was infected and it went from looking like a spider bite to necrotizing fasciitis within four hours, says William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University who was not involved in the study, to USA Todays Elizabeth Weise. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. Environ. Archer, E.J., Baker-Austin, C., Osborn, T.J. et al. Primary septicemia has been reported to be fatal in 6075% of cases with the presence of hypotension within 12h of admission being a poor prognostic factor (these patients have twice as high mortality rates) [3]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28247-2. A required sensitivity of 0.85 (ReqSens85) was chosen to ensure that that no more than 15% of risk locations were missed whilst maintaining the highest degree of specificity possible. 1). It is also likely his premorbid good state of health contributed to his recovery. Vibrio vulnificus is a gram-negative bacterium causing three clinical syndromes namely, gastrointestinal symptoms, skin sepsis and primary sepsis. This presents all cases where either the home or travel location was reported within 200km of the eastern USA coastline. Eyring, V. et al. Crucially they are available at finer grid resolutions. Article 1. He did not have any gastro-intestinal symptoms such as vomiting or diarrhea typical to this infection, throughout his disease course. Terms and Conditions, https://doi.org/10.1086/529148 (2008). Vibrio vulnificus. 34, 623642. Get the latest stories in your inbox every weekday. New research finds that infections caused by Vibrio vulnificus have increased over the last 30 years and expanded to new geographic areas. undertook the analysis with specific input from T.J.O. Accurate diagnosis, rapid antibiotic treatment, and prompt surgery are important to stopping this infection. He was ventilated for ten days and his intensive care stay was complicated with a non-oliguric acute kidney injury, with serum creatinine rising up to 8.67mg/dL (0.810.44mg/dL). What is Vibrio vulnificus? The latter geographical shift has been formally attributed to climate change8. Vezzulli, L., Colwell, R. R. & Pruzzo, C. Ocean warming and spread of pathogenic Vibrios in the aquatic environment. Subsequently, he was transferred to the high dependency area of the medical ward. There are currently about 100 cases of these infections each year in the U.S. and the Gulf Coast is considered a "global hotspot" for the bacteria. Ann Intern Med. Potential reasons include steeper latitude-temperature gradients at higher latitudes or few reported cases early in the observational period (19882018) in mid-latitudes. Lactose-positive vibrio in seawater: a cause of pneumonia and septicemia in a drowning victim. Meteorological conditions such as air temperature and precipitation not only influence SST and salinity (SST and air temperature are highly correlated27,28) but can also affect human behaviour and hence exposure to V. vulnificus. Arterial blood gas revealed pH- 7.44, PaCO2- 23mmHg, PaO2 60mmHg, HCO3-16.5mmol/l, lactate 1.7mmol/l and a PaO2/ FiO2 ratio of 290mmHg. The historical distribution of V. vulnificus infections between 2007 and 2018 is presented in Fig. They might also rise when sewage spills into coastal waters, which is what authorities say likely happened when Hurricane Ian struck Florida last year, followed by an uptick in V. vulnificus infections. Feng, X., Haines, K. & de Boissson, E. Coupling of surface air and sea surface temperatures in the CERA-20C reanalysis. Total population at risk (millions) for the tmean (C) and tmax model (D). Nat. 2017. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.00997. Vibriosis cases are usually mild but can become severe in people with weakened immune systems. Studies have shown that there are 95 cases reported with 85 hospitalizations and 35 deaths per year globally (CDC, 2013). Sci Rep 13, 3893 (2023). For wound infection, which may spread to the rest of the body: fever, redness, pain, swelling . Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. After this increase, the coastline lengths where infections are present diverges depending upon SSP. Most infections occur from May through October when water temperatures are warmer. 3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003 (2016). Pulmonary infiltrates associated with Vibrio vulnificus septicemia. The Vibrionacea includes three main human pathogens: Vibrio cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, and V. vulnificus. 29, 430440. Korean J Intern Med. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00248-012-0163-2 (2013). the elderly, individuals with underlying conditions), and coastal signage during high-risk periods. A copy of the written consent is available for review by the Editor-in-Chief of this journal. V. vulnificus infection can be fatal as it may cause severe wound infections potentially requiring amputation or lead to sepsis in susceptible individuals. The drop in platelets was attributed to the sepsis and it spontaneously resolved, with no requirement of transfusions. Vibrio vulnificus is transmitted via consumption of contaminated seafood and contaminated seawater skin exposure. Article These GCM projections were available for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)17 which enabled the influence of climate change in the V. vulnificus distribution to be assessed. Bronchoscopy was performed on day two of ICU care which demonstrated thick secretions from left upper bronchial segments. there are an estimated 84,000 people in the U.S. who contract an infection from Vibrio every year. Although classical virulence factors of this emerging pathogen are well characterised, there remains a paucity of . Vibrio parahaemolyticus Symptoms usually appear 24 hours after exposure, but can range from 4 hours to 4 days. Using the monthly total precipitation, mean precipitation, and maximum precipitation variables were also calculated in the same way. Table 1. by 2018. Occurrence of Vibrio vunificus cases, deaths, and mortality. For a few cases (69) a symptom date was not present, but in all but 3 cases one was generated by applying the modal lag between cases where a symptom date and specimen date were present. The patients ICU stay was complicated with an non oliguric acute kidney injury with serum creatinine rising up to 8.67mg/dL (0.811.44mg/dL). IPCC. 23, 131. Septic shock (systolic blood pressure<90mmHg), obtundation, lethargy, confusion and thrombocytopenia have also been reported in patients with primary septicaemia [3]. Terms of Use Vibrio cholerae can cause. & Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 20202100 (NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), 2021). . The incidence of V. vulnificus infection showed a high seasonality during the study period. Semmler, T. et al. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015, Paris (2016). per the CDC. When the coastline where infections are present is combined with the SSP-specific population, the impacts diverge further between SSPs. He had no gastrointestinal symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea. Therefore, each grid cell contained 12 values (one average value per calendar month) for the historical period and 12 for a given future time period. 1991;90(1):846. The coastline absent of V. vulnificus infections was defined as northwards from 39.93N to the northernmost point of Newfoundland and Labrador located (60.35N). Scientific Reports (Sci Rep) When the estimated number of cases is calculated based upon current age specific case rates (20-year age bands) the results indicate a case doubling by 20412060 under most SSPs and models. & Martinez-Urtaza, J. All coefficients and metrics of model performance were averaged over the 100 replicates. and I.R.L. Our analyses confirm studies which have documented Vibrio infection emergence in new US locations6. The secretions were cleared and samples were sent for gram stain and culture. Clim. Galbraith, P. S., Larouche, P., Chass, J. Monthly Coastal V. vulnificus Cases in Cities, Counties, and Districts and Seawater Temperature. The oceanographic (SST and salinity) and climate (air temperature and precipitation) data were assigned to each cell. Kuhn, M. caret: Classification and Regression Training (2021). These data were subdivided into 20-year age categories (019, 2039, 4059, 60 and older). However, he responded well to treatment with Ceftriaxone and Doxycycline and was extubated after ten days, following which he made a full recovery. Sarah Kuta is a writer and editor based in Longmont, Colorado. Infected individuals present with abrupt fever with chills and gastrointestinal symptoms with skin lesions, such as bullae, ecchymosis or rashes in the lower extremities [1]. Our projections indicate that climate change will have a major effect on V. vulnificus infection distribution and number in Eastern USA, likely due to warming coastal waters favouring presence of bacteria and elevated temperatures leading to more coastal recreation. He had no gastrointestinal or skin manifestations. Google Scholar. To understand the bacterias prevalence and reach, the researchers analyzed U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention statistics on V. vulnificus infections reported along the East Coast between 1988 and 2018. And V. vulnificus infections are notoriously expensive to treat, costing an estimated $320 million per year across the nation. March 27, 2023 A digitally colorized view of Vibrio vulnificus bacteria under a scanning electron microscope Janice Haney Carr / CDC Infections caused by a type of deadly, flesh-eating. Center for International Earth Science Information Network. Google Scholar. Individuals and health authorities could be warned in real time about particularly risky environmental conditions through marine33 or Vibrio-specific early warning systems34. 3.4. Elliott, L. R. et al. An accurate location of exposure is important, and for most cases this was based on the city/county where the individual lived or travelled to in the days preceding symptoms. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. However, this shift occurs into less densely populated areas, and within SSP370 there are population reductions under this regional rivalry scenario. Baker-Austin, C., Trinanes, J., Gonzalez-Escalona, N. & Martinez-Urtaza, J. Non-cholera Vibrios: The microbial barometer of climate change. He was also in septic shock requiring intravenous noradrenaline up to 1.2 mcg/kg/min which was weaned off by day eight. By 20812100 cases increase again to more than 3 times baseline under SSP126. Article Prognostic factors and antibiotics in Vibrio vulnificus septicemia. Cite this article. United Nations. By 20812100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.03.004 (2019). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Future changes to the V. vulnificus wound infection distribution were predicted using the ENM and future data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)17. PubMed Sea surface temperature and salinity were considered but the coarse dataset resolution (25 by 25km vs 5 by 5km for air temperature and precipitation) meant that they were unable to capture conditions close to the coast (where there can be sharp gradients particularly in salinity near to estuaries) especially as the effective resolution (i.e., including density of the underlying salinity observations) may be coarser. From the air temperature data tmean was calculated as the average of 12-monthly values for each time period. The global mean temperature has risen 1.2C since the pre-industrial period2. Springer Nature. 2023 Smithsonian Magazine Warszawski, L. et al. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Robin, X. et al. wrote the manuscript. Analysis was based upon climate data (air temperature and precipitation) obtained from seven GCMs and oceanographic data (sea surface temperature and salinity) for one GCM (see Methods and Table S1 for GCM references). An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. Clin. E.J.A., C.B.-A., and I.R.L. The current spatial distribution of V. vulnificus cases (presence:absence) was calculated using cases from 2007 onwards (n=709) to ensure a contemporary distribution and because V. vulnificus became notifiable in 2007 (therefore there was potential for earlier cases to be unreported). Foodborne infections result in primary septicemia in susceptible individuals and in most instances, these are sporadic. 1980;11(3):27880. Your Privacy Rights This is due to reductions in population associated with these SSPs24 and for SSP370, this represents a reduction in the population at risk in spite of a larger coastline where V. vulnificus infections are present, due to a lower future population under SSP3 particularly in NE USA25. Within 12 h of arrival, typical skin lesions appeared, and the patient rapidly developed primary sepsis. Lett. Intestinal manifestations are rare. His antibiotics were changed to intravenous ceftriaxone and doxycycline following a positive blood culture report of Vibrio vulnificus. Tmax produced a lower baseline of infection distribution estimate than tmean (9000 vs 10,000km). ADS (linear trend p<0.001). Medical Intensive Care Unit, National Hospital of Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Ishanya Abeyagunawardena&Dilshan Priyankara, You can also search for this author in Correspondence to PubMed The model outputs were the probability of V. vulnificus presence and these probabilities were converted into a binary map using the PresenceAbsence package44 in R version 4.0.242. In this paper we aim to describe a rare case of a V. vulnificus infection culminating in severe pneumonia in an immunocompetent patient requiring intensive care. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1628 (2013). PubMed It causes a serious form of the illness vibriosis that can quickly lead to sepsis, shock and large, spreading blisters that destroy tissues. Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming. Your US state privacy rights, Wound infections may occur from exposure to the bacteria. Under both SSP126 and SSP370, the tmean model (Fig. USA. Vibrio vulnificus causes both foodborne and wound infections throughout the world and in the United States it carries the highest death rate of any foodborne disease agent .According to estimates from both the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration, there are 50 foodborne cases per year in the U.S. serious enough . After the final models were selected, predictors from the historical data set and from every future SSP / time period combination were passed through the model to produce estimates of current and future V. vulnificus distribution. Incubation period: Usually 12 to 72 hours after eating raw or undercooked seafood. We were unable to model changes to the V. vulnificus southern extent, but this bacterium has been isolated from oysters as far south as Tabasco (18.5N)31. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Res. Hauer, M., Center for International Earth Science Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia University. IDCases 6, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idcr.2016.07.014 (2016). Gridded historical and future data sets of SST and salinity were downloaded for the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM-1-1-MR) at a spatial resolution of 25km35. V. vulnificus is the most pathogenic of the Vibrio genus: wound infection mortality rates are as high as 18%12 and fatalities have occurred as soon as 48h following exposure10. Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. Heng S-P, Letchumanan V, Deng C-Y, Ab Mutalib N-S, Khan TM, Chuah L-H, et al. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Count Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision of UN WPP Country Totals, Revision 11 (NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), 2018). Trends Ecol. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. Article Overall annual costs associated with this pathogen are estimated at US$ 320 million, making it the most expensive marine pathogen in the USA to treat14. These are referred to hereafter as SSP126 and SSP370. We focus on scenarios SSP1-2.6 which is set against the SSP1 narrative of sustainability and is a low emissions scenario, and SSP3-7.0, which is set against the SSP3 socioeconomic backdrop of regional rivalry20 where resurgent nationalism and regional conflicts shift focus away from climate mitigation leading to medium-to-high emissions. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-12-77 (2011). View chapter Purchase book. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are. 1). Abeyagunawardena, I., Priyankara, D. Vibrio vulnificus pneumonia with multiorgan failure: a case report and review of the literature. V vulnificus infections are reported each year in the US. SSP specific future age distributions were obtained from the U.S. County-Level Population Projections40. By using this website, you agree to our Google Scholar. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative. He was intubated and bronchoscopy was performed on day two, which demonstrated thick secretions from left upper bronchial segments. Vibrio vulnificus infections from a previously nonendemic area. We focus on SSP126 and SSP370 to represent a range of likely socioeconomic trends and greenhouse gas emissions22. 23, 73147340.
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